PRLog (Press Release) – Jun 29, 2011 – BMI's latest Germany Petrochemicals Report is confident about the outlook for the industry, forecasting output growth of around 4%, up from 2.5% forecast in the previous quarterly report.
The business environment is favourable with a strong start to 2011 reported by producers, who are unanimous in their belief that the year will see more growth although not at the 11% rate reported in 2010. However, we warn that risks still remark with increased market volatility. Reducing costs and increasing efficiency will therefore remain a priority for German plants in order to remain flexible. Rising raw material costs will also remain a challenge, although prices are not expected to rise at the 20-25% rate seen in 2010. Growth in German chemicals industries will be weighed down by low overall industry capacity utilisation, poor demographic trends, fiscal austerity and weak wage growth.
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In 2010, exports led the recovery with growth of 20% y-o-y to EUR99.6bn, which was above the precrisis level in 2007. However, 2011 is set to witness increasing importance of the domestic market. This will be assisted by robust economic performance with leading economic indicators support our aboveconsensus growth forecast of 3.0% for Germany this year. Domestic sales were up 14% in 2010, to EUR71bn, with domestic demand still 10% below pre-crisis levels. Growing confidence in the sector led to a 5% rise in investment in chemical plants, to EUR6.4bn. However, with expectations for future growth starting to moderate, amid the prospect of interest rate hikes and rising oil prices, we also hold to our 2.0% growth forecast for garbage compactor review 2012, expecting slower growth in H211.
Domestic petrochemicals end markets are showing mixed results improvements. The construction industry in Germany, which represents a major European consumer of PVC, has shown excellent recovery from its precipitous decline at the start of 2009. Growth in Germany's construction sector was largely in line with our expectations in 2010. The market expanded by 1.8% in real terms during the year, just marginally below our expectation of 2.2%. Going forward, however, we anticipate that growth in the construction sector will be subdued, totalling less than 1% per year across the remainder of our core forecast period (2012 to 2015). This will have a deleterious impact on construction materials, particularly plastic piping, at a time when raw material costs are soaring. BMI anticipates a stagnation, or contraction of the segment in H111 due to higher base effects and a slowdown in demand.
Meanwhile, the automotive sector continued its recovery in 2010. BMI sees significant resistance to production growth in Germany, both in the short and the long term. In the short term, increased raw material prices and pace of recovery in the overall European market amid austerity. The VDA is optimistic, however, that the incoming export orders for trash bins vehicles were strong by the end of 2010, which should help ease much of carmakers' caution. BMI forecasts production to grow an average 3% y-o-y over 2011-2015, which should increase total annual production to 6.90mn units by the end of 2015. This will mean a consistent but unspectacular growth in engineering plastics.
Report Table of Contents:
SWOT Analysis - Germany Political SWOT - Germany Economic SWOT - Germany Business Environment SWOT Global Overview - Petrochemicals Market Overview - Financial Results - Global Oil Products Price Outlook - Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl) - Table: Oil Product Price Data helicop ter technology And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) European Petrochemicals Overview Germany Market Overview - Market Structure - Insight Into The Competitive Arena Industry Trends And Developments - Recent Developments Petrochemicals Business Environment - Table: Western Europe Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings Industry Forecast Scenario - Table: Germany's Petrochemicals Sector, 2007-2014 ('000 tpa, unless otherwise stated) - Macroeconomic Outlook - Table: Germany - Economic Activity 2006-2015 Company Monitor - BASF Aktiengesellschaft (BASF) - BP Refining And Petrochemicals GmbH - Lanxess Glossary Of Terms - Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms BMI Methodology - How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts - Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry - Cross Checks - Business Environment Ratings - Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale - Weighting - Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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