PRLog (Press Release) – May 08, 2011 – The ne trash bins w UAE Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 7.33% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) power generation by 2015, with a broadly balanced market after system losses etc. BMI's MEA power generation assumption for 2010 is 1,222 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.0% over the previous year (when markets were depressed by the economic slowdown). We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,508TWh by 2015, representing a rise of 18.5% between 2011 and the end of the period.
MEA thermal power generation in 2010 is estimated by BMI to have been 1,140TWh, accounting for 93.3% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is 1,370TWh, implying 16.1% growth in the 2011-2015 period. This forecast factors in a slight reduction in the market share of thermal generation, which will fall to 90.8% - thanks in part to environmental concerns and the promotion of renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. In 2010 the UAE's thermal generation was an estimated 90.5TWh, or 7.94% of the regional total. By 2015 the country is expected to account for 8.08% of regional thermal generation.
Gas was the dominant fuel for the UAE in 2010, accounting for an estimated 71% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 29%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,114mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 15.9% growth over the period since 2011. The UAE's estimated 2010 market share of 8.52% is set to rise to 8.60% by 2015.
The UAE is ranked second in BMI's updated Power Business Environment rating, behind only Qatar, thanks to its developed competitive landscape, privatisation progress, population and power consumption growth. The size of the power market is relatively small and there is a relatively high level of regulation. The UAE is now five points behind regional leader Qatar, and is unlikely to be able to mount a near-term challenge for the top slot.
BMI forecasts real GDP growth averaging 3.53% per annum between 2011 and 2015, with the 2011 assumption being an increase of 3.00%. The population is expected to expand from 4.7mn to 5.2mn over the period to 2015, with GDP per capita and power consumption per capita forecast to increase by 22% and 10% respectively. Electricity consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 76TWh in 2010 to 93TWh by the end of the forecast period, with a balanced market if the country delivers the assumed 4.1% annual growth (2011-2015) in electricity generation.
Between 2011 and 2020 we forecast an increase in UAE electricity generation of 39.6%, near the bottom of the range for the MEA region. This equates to 18.2% in 2015-2020, up from 18.1% between 2011 and 2015. Primary energy demand growth is set to increase from 17.6% between 2011 and 2015 to 22.1%, at 43.6% for the entire forecast period. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 40% between 2011 and 2020. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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