PRLog (Press Release) – Apr 25, 2011 – This latest Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 38.81% of Middle Eastern (ME) regional oil demand by 2015, while providing a dominant 38.36% of supply. Middle East regional oil use rose to an estimated 7.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It should average 7.70mn b/d in 2011 and then climb to around 8.70mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 22.83mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 24.90mn b/d in 2010. After an estimated 25.21mn b/d in 2011, it is set to rise to 27.24mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 17.85mn b/d. This total eased to an estimated 17.50mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 18.54mn b/d by 2015. Iraq has the greatest export growth potential, followed by Qatar.
In terms of natural gas, the region consumed an estimated 392bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 482bcm targeted for 2015, representing 23.0% growth. Production of an estimated 467bcm in 2010 should reach 612bcm in 2015 (+31.0%), which implies net exports rising to 130bcm by the end of the period. Saudi Arabia consumed an estimated 20.07% of the region's gas in 2010, with its helicop ter technology market share forecast to be 18.05% in 2015. It will have contributed an estimated 16.84% to 2010 regional gas production and could account for 14.22% of supply by 2015.
The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year.
We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February.
Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$94/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. We have also retained our existing supply and demand forecasts until the scheduled quarterly revision at the start of April.
Saudi Arabian real GDP rose by an estimated 3.8% in 2010 and we expect 3.2% average annual GDP growth from 2010-2015. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 2.79mn b/d in 2010 to 3.38mn b/d in 2015, representing up to 3.0% annual growth beyond 2009 and broadly matching our underlying economic assumptions. State-owned Saudi Aramco is wholly responsible for oil and liquids production, which is forecast to rise from an estimated 9.88mn b/d in 2010 to 10.45mn b/d by 2015. There is no significant foreign involvement in the upstream oil segment, although international oil companies (IOCs) could have a role in future gas field development and are major players in refining and petrochemicals. Gas production should reach 87bcm by 2015, up from an estimated 79bcm in 2010. Consumption should match the trend, leaving Saudi Arabia with no import requirement or export potential during the period.
Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast an increase in Saudi Arabian oil production of 15.4%, with volumes rising steadily to 11.40mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption is set to increase by 40.1%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% a year towards the end of the period and the country using 3.91mn b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 79bcm to 118bcm by the end of the period. Demand growth of 49.8% from 2010-2020 will provide a balanced market throughout the period. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Saudi Arabia now takes eighth place, ahead only of Kuwait, in BMI's composite Business Environment ratings (BERs), which combine upstream and downstream scores. The country is ranked a surprising last place, behind Kuwait, in BMI's updated upstream ratings. It clearly has an unrivalled oil resource and production position, but the lack of upstream opportunities mean the country is stuck firmly at the bottom of the table. It is six points behind Kuwait and rc helicopter market place shows few signs of having the ability to challenge its rival. Saudi Arabia is in the upper manual trash compactor half of the league table in BMI's downstream ratings, with a few high scores and further progress up the rankings a medium-term possibility. It is ranked, fourth above the UAE, thanks largely to high scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand and nominal GDP. Healthy country risk factors help bolster the overall score.
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